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Impact of COVID-19 on global hepatitis C elimination efforts.

Identifieur interne : 000D54 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000D53; suivant : 000D55

Impact of COVID-19 on global hepatitis C elimination efforts.

Auteurs : Sarah Blach [États-Unis] ; Loreta A. Kondili ; Alessio Aghemo [Italie] ; Zongzhen Cai [États-Unis] ; Ellen Dugan [États-Unis] ; Chris Estes [États-Unis] ; Ivane Gamkrelidze [États-Unis] ; Siya Ma [États-Unis] ; Jean Michel Pawlotsky [France] ; Devin Razavi-Shearer [États-Unis] ; Homie Razavi [États-Unis] ; Imam Waked [Égypte] ; Stefan Zeuzem [Allemagne] ; Antonio Craxi [Italie]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:32777322

Abstract

BACKGROUND & AIMS

COVID-19 has placed significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in hepatitis C liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination program progress.

METHODS

Previously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or "no delay" scenario and a "1-year delay" scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis and treatment) in the year 2020. Annual, country-level, model outcomes were extracted, and weighted averages were used to calculate regional (WHO and World Bank Income Group) and global estimates from 2020 to 2030. The incremental annual change in outcomes was calculated by subtracting the "no-delay" estimates from the "1-year delay" estimates.

RESULTS

The "1-year delay" scenario resulted in 44,800 (95% UI: 43,800 - 49,300) excess hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases and 72,300 (95% UI: 70,600 - 79,400) excess liver-related deaths (LRDs), relative to the "no delay" scenario globally, from 2020-2030. Most missed treatments would be in lower-middle income countries, while most excess HCC and LRDs would be among high-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the direct morbidity and mortality associated with exposure and infection. In order to mitigate the impact on viral hepatitis programming and reduce excess mortality from delayed treatment, policy makers should prioritize hepatitis programs as soon as it becomes safe to do so.


DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2020.07.042
PubMed: 32777322
PubMed Central: PMC7411379


Affiliations:


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<name sortKey="Craxi, Antonio" sort="Craxi, Antonio" uniqKey="Craxi A" first="Antonio" last="Craxi">Antonio Craxi</name>
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<b>BACKGROUND & AIMS</b>
</p>
<p>COVID-19 has placed significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in hepatitis C liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination program progress.</p>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>METHODS</b>
</p>
<p>Previously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or "no delay" scenario and a "1-year delay" scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis and treatment) in the year 2020. Annual, country-level, model outcomes were extracted, and weighted averages were used to calculate regional (WHO and World Bank Income Group) and global estimates from 2020 to 2030. The incremental annual change in outcomes was calculated by subtracting the "no-delay" estimates from the "1-year delay" estimates.</p>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>RESULTS</b>
</p>
<p>The "1-year delay" scenario resulted in 44,800 (95% UI: 43,800 - 49,300) excess hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases and 72,300 (95% UI: 70,600 - 79,400) excess liver-related deaths (LRDs), relative to the "no delay" scenario globally, from 2020-2030. Most missed treatments would be in lower-middle income countries, while most excess HCC and LRDs would be among high-income countries.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>CONCLUSIONS</b>
</p>
<p>The impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the direct morbidity and mortality associated with exposure and infection. In order to mitigate the impact on viral hepatitis programming and reduce excess mortality from delayed treatment, policy makers should prioritize hepatitis programs as soon as it becomes safe to do so.</p>
</div>
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<Year>2020</Year>
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<Day>09</Day>
</DateRevised>
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<ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1600-0641</ISSN>
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<Year>2020</Year>
<Month>Aug</Month>
<Day>07</Day>
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<Title>Journal of hepatology</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>J. Hepatol.</ISOAbbreviation>
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<ArticleTitle>Impact of COVID-19 on global hepatitis C elimination efforts.</ArticleTitle>
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<AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND & AIMS" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">COVID-19 has placed significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in hepatitis C liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination program progress.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Previously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or "no delay" scenario and a "1-year delay" scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis and treatment) in the year 2020. Annual, country-level, model outcomes were extracted, and weighted averages were used to calculate regional (WHO and World Bank Income Group) and global estimates from 2020 to 2030. The incremental annual change in outcomes was calculated by subtracting the "no-delay" estimates from the "1-year delay" estimates.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The "1-year delay" scenario resulted in 44,800 (95% UI: 43,800 - 49,300) excess hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases and 72,300 (95% UI: 70,600 - 79,400) excess liver-related deaths (LRDs), relative to the "no delay" scenario globally, from 2020-2030. Most missed treatments would be in lower-middle income countries, while most excess HCC and LRDs would be among high-income countries.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the direct morbidity and mortality associated with exposure and infection. In order to mitigate the impact on viral hepatitis programming and reduce excess mortality from delayed treatment, policy makers should prioritize hepatitis programs as soon as it becomes safe to do so.</AbstractText>
<CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation>
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<LastName>Blach</LastName>
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<Affiliation>Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, Colorado, United States. Electronic address: sblach@cdafound.org.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<LastName>Kondili</LastName>
<ForeName>Loreta A</ForeName>
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<Affiliation>National Center for Global Health- Istituto Superiore di Sanità Rome Italy.</Affiliation>
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<Reference>
<Citation>Clin Infect Dis. 2014 Sep 15;59(6):765-73</Citation>
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<ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24928290</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
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<Citation>Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2017 Mar;2(3):161-176</Citation>
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<ArticleId IdType="pubmed">28404132</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
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<Citation>Int J Surg. 2020 May;77:217</Citation>
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<Citation>Am J Surg. 2020 Jun;219(6):900-902</Citation>
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